Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Tenney’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 30 points underpin trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% Republican probability. Her unopposed Republican primary and the recent Democratic nomination of Alissa Ellman have not altered the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan composition. Potential shifts could arise from an unusually adverse national midterm environment for Republicans, a major personal or campaign development affecting Tenney, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts limit the likelihood of such outcomes overturning the seat.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-24
Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-24
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
91%
Parti démocrate
8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$6,174 Vol.
91%
Parti démocrate
$3,552 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Tenney’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 30 points underpin trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% Republican probability. Her unopposed Republican primary and the recent Democratic nomination of Alissa Ellman have not altered the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan composition. Potential shifts could arise from an unusually adverse national midterm environment for Republicans, a major personal or campaign development affecting Tenney, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts limit the likelihood of such outcomes overturning the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$9,727Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Tenney’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 30 points underpin trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% Republican probability. Her unopposed Republican primary and the recent Democratic nomination of Alissa Ellman have not altered the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan composition. Potential shifts could arise from an unusually adverse national midterm environment for Republicans, a major personal or campaign development affecting Tenney, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts limit the likelihood of such outcomes overturning the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,727Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Tenney’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 30 points underpin trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% Republican probability. Her unopposed Republican primary and the recent Democratic nomination of Alissa Ellman have not altered the structural advantages of incumbency and partisan composition. Potential shifts could arise from an unusually adverse national midterm environment for Republicans, a major personal or campaign development affecting Tenney, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts limit the likelihood of such outcomes overturning the seat.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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