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icon for Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation
Politique·MOV à Mi-parcours

Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation

icon for Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation
Politique·MOV à Mi-parcours

Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation

1,6M-1,7M 45%

1,5M-1,6M 44%

1,7M-1,8M 44%

1,8M-1,9M 44%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

1,6M-1,7M 45%

1,5M-1,6M 44%

1,7M-1,8M 44%

1,8M-1,9M 44%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

<1,5M

$0 Vol.

41%

1,5M-1,6M

$0 Vol.

44%

1,6M-1,7M

$0 Vol.

45%

1,7M-1,8M

$0 Vol.

44%

1,8M-1,9M

$0 Vol.

44%

1,9M-2M

$0 Vol.

44%

2M-2,1M

$0 Vol.

43%

2,1M-2,2M

$0 Vol.

44%

2,2 M+

$0 Vol.

43%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Connexes

icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 560,000 and 600,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 560,000 and 600,000?

45%
icon for Le nombre total de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 pour le poste de sénateur de l'Ohio sera-t-il compris entre 4 050 000 et 4 200 000 ?

Le nombre total de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 pour le poste de sénateur de l'Ohio sera-t-il compris entre 4 050 000 et 4 200 000 ?

45%
Oui
icon for Le nombre total de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 pour le poste de sénateur de l’Oklahoma sera-t-il compris entre 900 000 et 1 000 000 ?

Le nombre total de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat de 2026 pour le poste de sénateur de l’Oklahoma sera-t-il compris entre 900 000 et 1 000 000 ?

45%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 1,5M-1,6M » à 45%, suivi de « 1,6M-1,7M » à 45%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 45¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 45% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 18, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation » est « 1,5M-1,6M » à 45%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 45% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 1,6M-1,7M » à 45%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection au Sénat de l'Oregon : participation » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.