Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Rafael López Aliaga at 60% implied probability to win Peru's presidential election first round, driven by recent polls showing him leading amid President Dina Boluarte's plummeting approval ratings below 10% and widespread protests over corruption and economic woes. As Lima's mayor, López Aliaga's right-wing populist platform on security and anti-establishment reforms resonates in a fragmented field, positioning him ahead of contenders like Roberto Sánchez Palomino and Fiorella Molinelli, who cluster around 28% as potential spoilers. Keiko Fujimori's low 11% reflects ongoing legal hurdles, while a recent Datum survey solidified López Aliaga's edge, though multipolar dynamics and upcoming candidate registrations could shift odds before the 2026 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVladimir Cerrón 55%
Carlos Espá 55%
Roberto Chiabra 55%
José Williams 55%

Vladimir Cerrón
55%

Carlos Espá
55%

Roberto Chiabra
55%

José Williams
55%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
55%

Marisol Pérez Tello
55%

Mario Vizcarra
55%

César Acuña
55%

Jorge Nieto
55%

Enrique Valderrama
55%

Ricardo Belmont
55%

Mesías Guevara
55%

José Luna
54%

Wolfgang Grozo
54%

Alfonso López Chau
54%

Carlos Álvarez
53%

Rafael López Aliaga
60%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
28%

Fiorella Molinelli
28%

Yonhy Lescano
28%

Fernando Olivera
28%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
11%
Vladimir Cerrón 55%
Carlos Espá 55%
Roberto Chiabra 55%
José Williams 55%

Vladimir Cerrón
55%

Carlos Espá
55%

Roberto Chiabra
55%

José Williams
55%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
55%

Marisol Pérez Tello
55%

Mario Vizcarra
55%

César Acuña
55%

Jorge Nieto
55%

Enrique Valderrama
55%

Ricardo Belmont
55%

Mesías Guevara
55%

José Luna
54%

Wolfgang Grozo
54%

Alfonso López Chau
54%

Carlos Álvarez
53%

Rafael López Aliaga
60%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
28%

Fiorella Molinelli
28%

Yonhy Lescano
28%

Fernando Olivera
28%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
11%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Rafael López Aliaga at 60% implied probability to win Peru's presidential election first round, driven by recent polls showing him leading amid President Dina Boluarte's plummeting approval ratings below 10% and widespread protests over corruption and economic woes. As Lima's mayor, López Aliaga's right-wing populist platform on security and anti-establishment reforms resonates in a fragmented field, positioning him ahead of contenders like Roberto Sánchez Palomino and Fiorella Molinelli, who cluster around 28% as potential spoilers. Keiko Fujimori's low 11% reflects ongoing legal hurdles, while a recent Datum survey solidified López Aliaga's edge, though multipolar dynamics and upcoming candidate registrations could shift odds before the 2026 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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