Recent polls for Sergipe's two Senate seats show a fragmented field with no candidate holding a clear edge for second place ahead of the October 4 election. Surveys from late July and early August place Delegado André David, André Moura, Eduardo Amorim, Rogério Carvalho, and others in a tight cluster, often separated by only a few percentage points in the low teens or single digits. Official candidate registrations and party conventions concluded in early August, confirming a broad slate that includes incumbents and challengers from multiple parties. This crowded contest and limited polling differentiation sustain trader uncertainty, reflected in the narrow implied probabilities across contenders. Further surveys, candidate alliances, or campaign momentum in the coming weeks could shift positioning before voting begins.