Republican incumbent Pat Fallon secured the nomination for Texas's 4th congressional district after defeating his primary challenger by a wide margin in March 2026, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Jason Pearce on November 3. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's established partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent, consistent with the structural advantages of incumbency and electoral math in this Northeast Texas district. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented shift, such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district's baseline voting patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTX-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
TX-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$39,977 Vol.
$39,977 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
95%
Parti démocrate
6%
$39,977 Vol.
$39,977 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$21,766 Vol.
95%
Parti démocrate
$18,211 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Pat Fallon secured the nomination for Texas's 4th congressional district after defeating his primary challenger by a wide margin in March 2026, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Jason Pearce on November 3. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's established partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent, consistent with the structural advantages of incumbency and electoral math in this Northeast Texas district. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented shift, such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district's baseline voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$39,977Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Pat Fallon secured the nomination for Texas's 4th congressional district after defeating his primary challenger by a wide margin in March 2026, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Jason Pearce on November 3. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's established partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent, consistent with the structural advantages of incumbency and electoral math in this Northeast Texas district. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented shift, such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district's baseline voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,977Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Pat Fallon secured the nomination for Texas's 4th congressional district after defeating his primary challenger by a wide margin in March 2026, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Jason Pearce on November 3. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's established partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Traders price the Republican outcome near 95 percent, consistent with the structural advantages of incumbency and electoral math in this Northeast Texas district. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented shift, such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district's baseline voting patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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