The resignation of incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales in April 2026 amid a personal scandal opened the TX-23 seat and triggered a competitive GOP primary ultimately won by hardline challenger Brandon Herrera after the May 26 runoff was canceled. This shift, combined with the district's longstanding Republican lean in South and West Texas, has shaped trader consensus around a 67.5% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout benefits from the vacancy and nominee change, as shown in early polling that placed the race within a few points, yet the seat's electoral math and historical voting patterns continue to anchor the current implied probabilities near 28.5% for Democrats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-23
$26,158 Vol.
$26,158 Vol.
Parti républicain
68%
Parti démocrate
29%
$26,158 Vol.
$26,158 Vol.
Parti républicain
68%
Parti démocrate
29%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resignation of incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales in April 2026 amid a personal scandal opened the TX-23 seat and triggered a competitive GOP primary ultimately won by hardline challenger Brandon Herrera after the May 26 runoff was canceled. This shift, combined with the district's longstanding Republican lean in South and West Texas, has shaped trader consensus around a 67.5% probability for the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout benefits from the vacancy and nominee change, as shown in early polling that placed the race within a few points, yet the seat's electoral math and historical voting patterns continue to anchor the current implied probabilities near 28.5% for Democrats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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