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Politique·Royaume-Uni

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles
Politique·Royaume-Uni

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles

Plaid Cymru 100.0%

Parti travailliste gallois <1%

Conservateurs gallois <1%

Libéraux démocrates gallois <1%

Polymarket

$325,452 Vol.

Plaid Cymru 100.0%

Parti travailliste gallois <1%

Conservateurs gallois <1%

Libéraux démocrates gallois <1%

Polymarket

$325,452 Vol.

Parti travailliste gallois

$32,625 Vol.

Non

Conservateurs gallois

$23,222 Vol.

Non

Libéraux démocrates gallois

$9,312 Vol.

Non

Plaid Cymru

$130,553 Vol.

Oui

Reform UK

$117,704 Vol.

Non

Parti vert gallois

$12,037 Vol.

Non

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Plaid Cymru's commanding trader consensus stems from official Senedd election results announced on May 8 following the May 7 vote, securing 43 of 96 seats under the new fully proportional D'Hondt system—the party's historic first as largest party, ending Welsh Labour's century-long dominance. Labour plummeted to 9 seats on 11% vote share amid voter backlash, with Reform UK gaining 34 seats but trailing Plaid; Conservatives fell to 7. Pre-election polls accurately forecasted Plaid's surge, driven by leadership under Rhun ap Iorwerth and dissatisfaction with incumbents, including First Minister Eluned Morgan losing her seat. Absent recounts, legal challenges, or certification disputes, coalition negotiations will now shape government formation, as Plaid falls six seats short of a majority.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Volume
$325,452
Date de fin
7 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Plaid Cymru's commanding trader consensus stems from official Senedd election results announced on May 8 following the May 7 vote, securing 43 of 96 seats under the new fully proportional D'Hondt system—the party's historic first as largest party, ending Welsh Labour's century-long dominance. Labour plummeted to 9 seats on 11% vote share amid voter backlash, with Reform UK gaining 34 seats but trailing Plaid; Conservatives fell to 7. Pre-election polls accurately forecasted Plaid's surge, driven by leadership under Rhun ap Iorwerth and dissatisfaction with incumbents, including First Minister Eluned Morgan losing her seat. Absent recounts, legal challenges, or certification disputes, coalition negotiations will now shape government formation, as Plaid falls six seats short of a majority.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Volume
$325,452
Date de fin
7 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

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Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Plaid Cymru » à 100%, suivi de « Parti travailliste gallois » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles » a généré $325.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 12, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles » est « Plaid Cymru » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Parti travailliste gallois » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Pays de Galles » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.