Tim Cook's expected departure from Apple drives the market's clearest consensus, reflecting confirmed succession planning amid the company's shift toward AI hardware and services integration. Other tech leaders face low implied probabilities of exiting before year-end 2026, including Sam Altman at OpenAI, where recent enterprise-focused model releases and policy engagement signal continued stability despite AI capability debates. Andy Jassy at Amazon and Sundar Pichai at Google benefit from entrenched positions in cloud and search ecosystems, with limited near-term catalysts like regulatory actions or board shifts. Traders should monitor upcoming earnings calls and developer events for any unexpected leadership signals, as historical tech tenure patterns show most incumbents remain through multi-year AI transition cycles unless specific triggers emerge.