OpenAI’s August 7 announcement that it cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities in Astra—its next frontier model family named publicly on August 1—has driven the tight market odds by triggering expanded safety testing and a pause on non-compliant internal activities under the company’s Preparedness Framework. This development, following strong results in agentic coding and cybersecurity benchmarks, introduces meaningful timeline uncertainty without a confirmed release window. Traders see the closely matched probabilities across late-August through October weeks and the slight edge for “not released by November 1” as reflecting both the added safeguards process and OpenAI’s history of shifting schedules when capability thresholds are met. Key near-term catalysts include further internal evaluations and any official statements on deployment readiness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNon publié d’ici le 1er novembre 42%
31 août–6 septembre 39%
14–20 septembre 39%
21–27 septembre 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
Avant le 31 août
38%
31 août–6 septembre
39%
7–13 septembre
38%
14–20 septembre
39%
21–27 septembre
39%
28 septembre – 4 octobre
39%
5–11 octobre
39%
12–18 octobre
39%
19–25 octobre
39%
26 octobre–1er novembre
39%
Non publié d’ici le 1er novembre
42%
Non publié d’ici le 1er novembre 42%
31 août–6 septembre 39%
14–20 septembre 39%
21–27 septembre 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
Avant le 31 août
$0 Vol.
38%
31 août–6 septembre
$0 Vol.
39%
7–13 septembre
$0 Vol.
38%
14–20 septembre
$0 Vol.
39%
21–27 septembre
$0 Vol.
39%
28 septembre – 4 octobre
$0 Vol.
39%
5–11 octobre
$0 Vol.
39%
12–18 octobre
$0 Vol.
39%
19–25 octobre
$0 Vol.
39%
26 octobre–1er novembre
$0 Vol.
39%
Non publié d’ici le 1er novembre
$0 Vol.
42%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s August 7 announcement that it cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities in Astra—its next frontier model family named publicly on August 1—has driven the tight market odds by triggering expanded safety testing and a pause on non-compliant internal activities under the company’s Preparedness Framework. This development, following strong results in agentic coding and cybersecurity benchmarks, introduces meaningful timeline uncertainty without a confirmed release window. Traders see the closely matched probabilities across late-August through October weeks and the slight edge for “not released by November 1” as reflecting both the added safeguards process and OpenAI’s history of shifting schedules when capability thresholds are met. Key near-term catalysts include further internal evaluations and any official statements on deployment readiness.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s August 7 announcement that it cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities in Astra—its next frontier model family named publicly on August 1—has driven the tight market odds by triggering expanded safety testing and a pause on non-compliant internal activities under the company’s Preparedness Framework. This development, following strong results in agentic coding and cybersecurity benchmarks, introduces meaningful timeline uncertainty without a confirmed release window. Traders see the closely matched probabilities across late-August through October weeks and the slight edge for “not released by November 1” as reflecting both the added safeguards process and OpenAI’s history of shifting schedules when capability thresholds are met. Key near-term catalysts include further internal evaluations and any official statements on deployment readiness.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s August 7 announcement that it cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities in Astra—its next frontier model family named publicly on August 1—has driven the tight market odds by triggering expanded safety testing and a pause on non-compliant internal activities under the company’s Preparedness Framework. This development, following strong results in agentic coding and cybersecurity benchmarks, introduces meaningful timeline uncertainty without a confirmed release window. Traders see the closely matched probabilities across late-August through October weeks and the slight edge for “not released by November 1” as reflecting both the added safeguards process and OpenAI’s history of shifting schedules when capability thresholds are met. Key near-term catalysts include further internal evaluations and any official statements on deployment readiness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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