Jannik Sinner enters the 2026 US Open as the clear market leader for reaching the men’s final, backed by his world No. 1 ranking, dominant hard-court results, and recent Wimbledon title amid a strong 2026 season. Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion, trails due to a prolonged wrist injury that limited his preparation, though his return and historical success on New York hard courts keep him relevant in trader pricing. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka leads discussions around final appearances given consistent form and recent major contention. Key variables include official injury reports for players like Emma Raducanu, draw positioning, rest advantages heading into late August, and head-to-head trends on the surface. Late roster changes or withdrawals could still shift implied probabilities ahead of the August 23 start.