The 100% market-implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stems from the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions first support organized tropical cyclone development. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows zero named storms or hurricanes forming in the basin through the end of May 2026, consistent with historical patterns where pre-season activity remains rare and landfalls even rarer. No recent model runs or observational data from NOAA have indicated any intensification or steering patterns that could produce an early system reaching Category 1 strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) and U.S. coastline impact. While unexpected tropical disturbances could theoretically emerge in late May, none materialized this year, locking in the outcome under standard resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis d'ici le 31 mai ?
Un ouragan touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis d'ici le 31 mai ?
Oui
$41,549 Vol.
$41,549 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Oui
$41,549 Vol.
$41,549 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The 100% market-implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stems from the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions first support organized tropical cyclone development. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows zero named storms or hurricanes forming in the basin through the end of May 2026, consistent with historical patterns where pre-season activity remains rare and landfalls even rarer. No recent model runs or observational data from NOAA have indicated any intensification or steering patterns that could produce an early system reaching Category 1 strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) and U.S. coastline impact. While unexpected tropical disturbances could theoretically emerge in late May, none materialized this year, locking in the outcome under standard resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Marché ouvert : Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$41,549Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The 100% market-implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stems from the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions first support organized tropical cyclone development. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows zero named storms or hurricanes forming in the basin through the end of May 2026, consistent with historical patterns where pre-season activity remains rare and landfalls even rarer. No recent model runs or observational data from NOAA have indicated any intensification or steering patterns that could produce an early system reaching Category 1 strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) and U.S. coastline impact. While unexpected tropical disturbances could theoretically emerge in late May, none materialized this year, locking in the outcome under standard resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volume
$41,549Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The 100% market-implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stems from the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, when sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions first support organized tropical cyclone development. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows zero named storms or hurricanes forming in the basin through the end of May 2026, consistent with historical patterns where pre-season activity remains rare and landfalls even rarer. No recent model runs or observational data from NOAA have indicated any intensification or steering patterns that could produce an early system reaching Category 1 strength (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) and U.S. coastline impact. While unexpected tropical disturbances could theoretically emerge in late May, none materialized this year, locking in the outcome under standard resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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