Apple’s established annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching in September, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Supply chain reports and analyst tracking show continued preparation for standard, Pro, and potential Air variants on the usual timeline, following the iPhone 17 cycle without announced postponements. Traders see limited risk from manufacturing shifts toward India or incremental AI hardware upgrades, as these align with prior successful rollouts. While realistic disruptions such as component shortages, regulatory reviews in major markets, or last-minute feature adjustments could theoretically extend the window into early 2027, current verified developments point to a high probability of meeting the conventional fall release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$163,038 Vol.
$163,038 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$163,038 Vol.
$163,038 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching in September, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Supply chain reports and analyst tracking show continued preparation for standard, Pro, and potential Air variants on the usual timeline, following the iPhone 17 cycle without announced postponements. Traders see limited risk from manufacturing shifts toward India or incremental AI hardware upgrades, as these align with prior successful rollouts. While realistic disruptions such as component shortages, regulatory reviews in major markets, or last-minute feature adjustments could theoretically extend the window into early 2027, current verified developments point to a high probability of meeting the conventional fall release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$163,038Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching in September, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Supply chain reports and analyst tracking show continued preparation for standard, Pro, and potential Air variants on the usual timeline, following the iPhone 17 cycle without announced postponements. Traders see limited risk from manufacturing shifts toward India or incremental AI hardware upgrades, as these align with prior successful rollouts. While realistic disruptions such as component shortages, regulatory reviews in major markets, or last-minute feature adjustments could theoretically extend the window into early 2027, current verified developments point to a high probability of meeting the conventional fall release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$163,038Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching in September, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Supply chain reports and analyst tracking show continued preparation for standard, Pro, and potential Air variants on the usual timeline, following the iPhone 17 cycle without announced postponements. Traders see limited risk from manufacturing shifts toward India or incremental AI hardware upgrades, as these align with prior successful rollouts. While realistic disruptions such as component shortages, regulatory reviews in major markets, or last-minute feature adjustments could theoretically extend the window into early 2027, current verified developments point to a high probability of meeting the conventional fall release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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