Apple's consistent annual iPhone refresh cycle drives the 97.1% implied probability for a 2026 release, with credible reports confirming plans to unveil iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the first foldable iPhone at a September event. Supply chain patterns, chip development timelines such as the A20 series, and historical precedent of fall launches since 2012 underpin trader confidence in at least partial iPhone 18 series availability before year-end. While a standard iPhone 18 could slip to spring 2027 under rumored schedule changes, realistic risks like production delays from new hardware complexity, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen component shortages remain low-probability outliers given Apple's track record and ongoing preparations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
97% chance
$167,271 Vol.
$167,271 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
97% chance
$167,271 Vol.
$167,271 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone refresh cycle drives the 97.1% implied probability for a 2026 release, with credible reports confirming plans to unveil iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the first foldable iPhone at a September event. Supply chain patterns, chip development timelines such as the A20 series, and historical precedent of fall launches since 2012 underpin trader confidence in at least partial iPhone 18 series availability before year-end. While a standard iPhone 18 could slip to spring 2027 under rumored schedule changes, realistic risks like production delays from new hardware complexity, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen component shortages remain low-probability outliers given Apple's track record and ongoing preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$167,271Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone refresh cycle drives the 97.1% implied probability for a 2026 release, with credible reports confirming plans to unveil iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the first foldable iPhone at a September event. Supply chain patterns, chip development timelines such as the A20 series, and historical precedent of fall launches since 2012 underpin trader confidence in at least partial iPhone 18 series availability before year-end. While a standard iPhone 18 could slip to spring 2027 under rumored schedule changes, realistic risks like production delays from new hardware complexity, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen component shortages remain low-probability outliers given Apple's track record and ongoing preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$167,271Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual iPhone refresh cycle drives the 97.1% implied probability for a 2026 release, with credible reports confirming plans to unveil iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the first foldable iPhone at a September event. Supply chain patterns, chip development timelines such as the A20 series, and historical precedent of fall launches since 2012 underpin trader confidence in at least partial iPhone 18 series availability before year-end. While a standard iPhone 18 could slip to spring 2027 under rumored schedule changes, realistic risks like production delays from new hardware complexity, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen component shortages remain low-probability outliers given Apple's track record and ongoing preparations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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