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Politique·Canada

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle provinciale de York—Simcoe

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection partielle provinciale de York—Simcoe
Politique·Canada

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle provinciale de York—Simcoe

Susan Lahey 97.6%

Naomi Davison 1.8%

Matt Pearce <1%

Gerald Auger <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Susan Lahey 97.6%

Naomi Davison 1.8%

Matt Pearce <1%

Gerald Auger <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Susan Lahey

Susan Lahey

$1,780 Vol.

98%

icon for Naomi Davison

Naomi Davison

$739 Vol.

2%

icon for Matt Pearce

Matt Pearce

$169 Vol.

1%

icon for Gerald Auger

Gerald Auger

$367 Vol.

1%

icon for Bobby Nikmard

Bobby Nikmard

$354 Vol.

1%

icon for David Ghobrial

David Ghobrial

$281 Vol.

1%

icon for Sean Conroy

Sean Conroy

$360 Vol.

1%

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Susan Lahey holds a commanding lead in the York—Simcoe by-election market due to the riding’s consistent Progressive Conservative dominance in recent provincial votes and her profile as the PC nominee. Appointed by party leader Doug Ford in June 2026, Lahey brings experience as an East Gwillimbury town councillor, small business owner, and long-time local resident. The September 3 by-election follows the resignation of former cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney, with opposition candidates including Liberal Naomi Davison, Green Matt Pearce, and NDP’s Bobby Nikmard fielded against her. Limited recent polling or major campaign shifts have reinforced trader consensus on the PC hold. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout, or late-breaking local issues that erode the party’s traditional margin in this riding.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$4,049
Date de fin
3 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Susan Lahey holds a commanding lead in the York—Simcoe by-election market due to the riding’s consistent Progressive Conservative dominance in recent provincial votes and her profile as the PC nominee. Appointed by party leader Doug Ford in June 2026, Lahey brings experience as an East Gwillimbury town councillor, small business owner, and long-time local resident. The September 3 by-election follows the resignation of former cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney, with opposition candidates including Liberal Naomi Davison, Green Matt Pearce, and NDP’s Bobby Nikmard fielded against her. Limited recent polling or major campaign shifts have reinforced trader consensus on the PC hold. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout, or late-breaking local issues that erode the party’s traditional margin in this riding.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$4,049
Date de fin
3 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 5:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of York—Simcoe is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).

Connexes

icon for Fatima Shaban va-t-elle remporter l'élection partielle provinciale de Scarborough-Southwest en 2026 ?

Fatima Shaban va-t-elle remporter l'élection partielle provinciale de Scarborough-Southwest en 2026 ?

49%
Oui
icon for Jeff Beattie remportera-t-il l'élection partielle provinciale de Hamilton East—Stoney Creek en 2026 ?

Jeff Beattie remportera-t-il l'élection partielle provinciale de Hamilton East—Stoney Creek en 2026 ?

38%
Oui
icon for Will Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?

Will Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?

97%

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle provinciale de York—Simcoe » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Susan Lahey » à 98%, suivi de « Naomi Davison » à 2%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 98¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 98% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle provinciale de York—Simcoe » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 20, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle provinciale de York—Simcoe », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle provinciale de York—Simcoe » est « Susan Lahey » à 98%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 98% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Naomi Davison » à 2%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle provinciale de York—Simcoe » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.