Democratic incumbent Derek Tran advanced comfortably from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary in the 45th district, securing roughly half the vote against a fragmented Republican field that included multiple Vietnamese-American candidates. The district, which leans slightly Democratic based on recent voter registration and 2024 results, features Tran seeking re-election after his narrow 2024 victory. Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to a Democratic win, reflecting the incumbent's structural advantages, unified Democratic support, and limited Republican consolidation heading into the November general election. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout or national conditions over the coming months.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,726 वॉल्यूम
88%
Republican Party
$6,331 वॉल्यूम
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran advanced comfortably from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary in the 45th district, securing roughly half the vote against a fragmented Republican field that included multiple Vietnamese-American candidates. The district, which leans slightly Democratic based on recent voter registration and 2024 results, features Tran seeking re-election after his narrow 2024 victory. Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to a Democratic win, reflecting the incumbent's structural advantages, unified Democratic support, and limited Republican consolidation heading into the November general election. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout or national conditions over the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$8,056समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran advanced comfortably from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary in the 45th district, securing roughly half the vote against a fragmented Republican field that included multiple Vietnamese-American candidates. The district, which leans slightly Democratic based on recent voter registration and 2024 results, features Tran seeking re-election after his narrow 2024 victory. Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to a Democratic win, reflecting the incumbent's structural advantages, unified Democratic support, and limited Republican consolidation heading into the November general election. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout or national conditions over the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$8,056समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran advanced comfortably from California's June 2, 2026, top-two primary in the 45th district, securing roughly half the vote against a fragmented Republican field that included multiple Vietnamese-American candidates. The district, which leans slightly Democratic based on recent voter registration and 2024 results, features Tran seeking re-election after his narrow 2024 victory. Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to a Democratic win, reflecting the incumbent's structural advantages, unified Democratic support, and limited Republican consolidation heading into the November general election. A Republican upset would require substantial shifts in turnout or national conditions over the coming months.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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