Forecast models from the German Weather Service and European ensembles show Munich under high pressure with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies on August 11, supporting a daily maximum near 30–32°C. Ensemble spreads and local effects such as urban heat islands, wind direction, and afternoon mixing create tight uncertainty between 31°C and 32°C, which together capture two-thirds of trader probability. Recent model runs have held steady without major shifts in steering patterns or moisture, while historical August maxima in Munich average around 23–25°C, placing the current setup above climatology. Updated guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak before official station data resolves the market.