**Typhoon Dolphin’s approach dominates trader sentiment for Shanghai’s August 9 maximum temperature.** Official forecasts show the storm tracking toward landfall near Shanghai or adjacent coastal areas on August 9–10, introducing increased cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly winds that suppress daytime heating. These conditions contrast with the recent heat-wave baseline of 35–37°C under subtropical high pressure earlier in the week. Model consensus and China Meteorological Administration guidance point to peak readings near 29–30°C, with the precise timing of rain onset and wind shifts determining whether the official station observation edges toward 28°C or 31°C. Historical August highs average 31–32°C, but the typhoon’s arrival creates genuine uncertainty around exact resolution values.