**Current NWS forecasts position Seattle’s August 8 high near 81°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, directly supporting the market’s heaviest concentration on 80–83°F bins.** Marine air influence from Puget Sound typically caps afternoon maxima even during summer high-pressure setups, while recent model runs show limited warming potential from offshore flow before any onshore shift. Historical August averages hover around 76°F, so the projected value sits modestly above normal yet well below heat-wave thresholds that would push readings into the mid-80s or higher. Traders appear to be weighting the official point forecast and ensemble consensus most heavily, with smaller probabilities assigned to modest forecast shifts from timing of sea-breeze onset or minor cloud development. New model guidance and NWS updates through Friday evening remain the key near-term variables that could refine these implied probabilities.