Trader consensus centers on 33–34°C for Taipei’s August 20 high because Central Weather Administration guidance and supporting models project a daytime peak in that narrow range under late-summer subtropical conditions. Ample solar insolation and the urban heat island drive rapid morning warming, while high humidity and weak steering flow limit nocturnal cooling; scattered afternoon thundershowers, however, can reduce peak temperatures by 1–2 °C depending on timing and coverage. Minor differences in model cloud forecasts and sea-breeze strength therefore keep the two leading bins nearly tied, with lower probabilities assigned to 35 °C or above only if skies remain mostly clear through peak heating hours. Updated CWA briefings and next model runs will provide the clearest near-term signals.