Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird dominates trader consensus at 85% implied probability for the IN-04 Republican primary on May 5, bolstered by his established fundraising—nearly $140,000 raised recently—and history of winning the 2024 primary with 64% amid incumbency advantages in this GOP-leaning district. President Donald Trump's endorsement of Baird on April 14 has further entrenched his lead in the final weeks, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on his resilience against challenges. State Rep. Craig Haggard holds second at 20.5% after key endorsements like Attorney General Todd Rokita's in late March, positioning him as the primary alternative, while businessman John Piper lingers at 0.9% with limited traction. Upcoming early voting could influence turnout among key Republican blocs.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाJim Baird 84%
Craig Haggard 13%
John Piper <1%
नया
नया
5 मई, 2026
Jim Baird
84%
Craig Haggard
13%
John Piper
1%
Jim Baird 84%
Craig Haggard 13%
John Piper <1%
नया
नया
5 मई, 2026
Jim Baird
$268 वॉल्यूम
84%
Craig Haggard
$465 वॉल्यूम
13%
John Piper
$653 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird dominates trader consensus at 85% implied probability for the IN-04 Republican primary on May 5, bolstered by his established fundraising—nearly $140,000 raised recently—and history of winning the 2024 primary with 64% amid incumbency advantages in this GOP-leaning district. President Donald Trump's endorsement of Baird on April 14 has further entrenched his lead in the final weeks, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on his resilience against challenges. State Rep. Craig Haggard holds second at 20.5% after key endorsements like Attorney General Todd Rokita's in late March, positioning him as the primary alternative, while businessman John Piper lingers at 0.9% with limited traction. Upcoming early voting could influence turnout among key Republican blocs.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,385समाप्ति तिथि
5 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird dominates trader consensus at 85% implied probability for the IN-04 Republican primary on May 5, bolstered by his established fundraising—nearly $140,000 raised recently—and history of winning the 2024 primary with 64% amid incumbency advantages in this GOP-leaning district. President Donald Trump's endorsement of Baird on April 14 has further entrenched his lead in the final weeks, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on his resilience against challenges. State Rep. Craig Haggard holds second at 20.5% after key endorsements like Attorney General Todd Rokita's in late March, positioning him as the primary alternative, while businessman John Piper lingers at 0.9% with limited traction. Upcoming early voting could influence turnout among key Republican blocs.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
वॉल्यूम
$1,385समाप्ति तिथि
5 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird dominates trader consensus at 85% implied probability for the IN-04 Republican primary on May 5, bolstered by his established fundraising—nearly $140,000 raised recently—and history of winning the 2024 primary with 64% amid incumbency advantages in this GOP-leaning district. President Donald Trump's endorsement of Baird on April 14 has further entrenched his lead in the final weeks, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on his resilience against challenges. State Rep. Craig Haggard holds second at 20.5% after key endorsements like Attorney General Todd Rokita's in late March, positioning him as the primary alternative, while businessman John Piper lingers at 0.9% with limited traction. Upcoming early voting could influence turnout among key Republican blocs.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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