Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18 and rated Solid Republican across forecasters, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP House winner, reflecting the seat's entrenched Republican dominance and incumbent Thomas Massie's history of landslide victories. Recent polls from early April, including Quantus Insights (Massie 47%, challenger Ed Gallrein 38%) and Big Data Poll (52%-48%), show Massie leading ahead of the May 19 Republican primary despite Trump's endorsement of Gallrein, ensuring a strong nominee against Democrats Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange. Scenarios like a primary upset yielding a flawed GOP candidate, nominee scandal, or national Democratic wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाKY -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
KY -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$14,808 वॉल्यूम
$14,808 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
92%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
9%
$14,808 वॉल्यूम
$14,808 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$13,491 वॉल्यूम
92%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$1,316 वॉल्यूम
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18 and rated Solid Republican across forecasters, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP House winner, reflecting the seat's entrenched Republican dominance and incumbent Thomas Massie's history of landslide victories. Recent polls from early April, including Quantus Insights (Massie 47%, challenger Ed Gallrein 38%) and Big Data Poll (52%-48%), show Massie leading ahead of the May 19 Republican primary despite Trump's endorsement of Gallrein, ensuring a strong nominee against Democrats Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange. Scenarios like a primary upset yielding a flawed GOP candidate, nominee scandal, or national Democratic wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,808समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18 and rated Solid Republican across forecasters, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP House winner, reflecting the seat's entrenched Republican dominance and incumbent Thomas Massie's history of landslide victories. Recent polls from early April, including Quantus Insights (Massie 47%, challenger Ed Gallrein 38%) and Big Data Poll (52%-48%), show Massie leading ahead of the May 19 Republican primary despite Trump's endorsement of Gallrein, ensuring a strong nominee against Democrats Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange. Scenarios like a primary upset yielding a flawed GOP candidate, nominee scandal, or national Democratic wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$14,808समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18 and rated Solid Republican across forecasters, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP House winner, reflecting the seat's entrenched Republican dominance and incumbent Thomas Massie's history of landslide victories. Recent polls from early April, including Quantus Insights (Massie 47%, challenger Ed Gallrein 38%) and Big Data Poll (52%-48%), show Massie leading ahead of the May 19 Republican primary despite Trump's endorsement of Gallrein, ensuring a strong nominee against Democrats Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange. Scenarios like a primary upset yielding a flawed GOP candidate, nominee scandal, or national Democratic wave could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
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