Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, bolstered by recent public polls showing him ahead of Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein. A BIGDATAPOLL survey (April 3–7) gave Massie 52.4% to Gallrein's 47.6% among likely voters, with Massie dominating younger demographics while Gallrein edges seniors; a Quantus Insights poll (April 6–7) had Massie at 46.8% to 37.7%, highlighting voter preference for principled independence over strict Trump alignment. Trump's March endorsement and ongoing attacks on Massie as an obstructionist have fueled Gallrein's 30.4% share amid attack ads and Gallrein's debate reluctance, but Massie's incumbency and district popularity sustain his edge in this intra-GOP contest.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाथॉमस मैसी 70%
एड गैलरेन 30.4%
निकोल ली एथिंगटन <1%
रॉबर्ट वेल्स जूनियर <1%
$255,746 वॉल्यूम
$255,746 वॉल्यूम
थॉमस मैसी
70%
एड गैलरेन
30%
निकोल ली एथिंगटन
<1%
रॉबर्ट वेल्स जूनियर
<1%
थॉमस मैसी 70%
एड गैलरेन 30.4%
निकोल ली एथिंगटन <1%
रॉबर्ट वेल्स जूनियर <1%
$255,746 वॉल्यूम
$255,746 वॉल्यूम
थॉमस मैसी
70%
एड गैलरेन
30%
निकोल ली एथिंगटन
<1%
रॉबर्ट वेल्स जूनियर
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, bolstered by recent public polls showing him ahead of Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein. A BIGDATAPOLL survey (April 3–7) gave Massie 52.4% to Gallrein's 47.6% among likely voters, with Massie dominating younger demographics while Gallrein edges seniors; a Quantus Insights poll (April 6–7) had Massie at 46.8% to 37.7%, highlighting voter preference for principled independence over strict Trump alignment. Trump's March endorsement and ongoing attacks on Massie as an obstructionist have fueled Gallrein's 30.4% share amid attack ads and Gallrein's debate reluctance, but Massie's incumbency and district popularity sustain his edge in this intra-GOP contest.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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