Traders see closely matched probabilities across 19–25°C ranges for Chengdu’s August 23 minimum because short-range forecast models diverge on nocturnal radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and scattered showers. The China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles show a moist monsoon flow that could enhance cloudiness, limiting overnight temperature drops below the seasonal 22–24°C baseline, while clearer intervals might allow greater cooling toward 19–20°C. Humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns from the Sichuan basin further widen uncertainty bands, with updated model runs expected to clarify whether precipitation arrives before dawn on the 23rd.