**Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service and other sources point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Houston on August 28, 2026, with most projections clustered around 78–80°F.** This aligns with the market’s near-even split among 74–81°F outcomes at roughly 45–46% each, reflecting tight uncertainty around the precise minimum. Late-summer conditions feature persistent Gulf moisture, high dew points near 74–76°F, and light/variable winds that limit radiative cooling after any evening convection. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with 20–40% chances mainly in the afternoon and early evening, may briefly disrupt the temperature drop but are expected to clear overnight under mostly clear skies. Normal climatological lows for late August sit around 76°F, and recent days have shown overnight minima of 77–81°F under similar patterns. Key variables differentiating the closely matched bins include exact cloud cover timing, localized storm outflow, and station-specific readings (e.g., Hobby vs. Intercontinental). Updated NWS and model runs through the evening will refine the final minimum, keeping the market sensitive to any last-hour adjustments in cooling rates.