A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासितंबर 2026 रिकॉर्ड पर पहला, दूसरा या तीसरा सबसे गर्म?
सितंबर 2026 रिकॉर्ड पर पहला, दूसरा या तीसरा सबसे गर्म?
सबसे गर्म 49%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म 49%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म 49%
चौथा या उससे नीचे 49%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
सबसे गर्म
49%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
49%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म
49%
चौथा या उससे नीचे
49%
सबसे गर्म 49%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म 49%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म 49%
चौथा या उससे नीचे 49%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
सबसे गर्म
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
चौथा या उससे नीचे
$0 वॉल्यूम
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C in August 2026 and model consensus pointing to a historic peak near +3–4°C by November–December, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment for September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content, including daily extra-polar SSTs hitting 21.1°C in late August, adds to the background anthropogenic warming trend and raises the likelihood of another top-three September. However, the typical 3–6 month lag in global temperature response to El Niño means September will capture only partial amplification, creating tight differentiation among first-, second-, and third-hottest rankings. Model spread on exact peak timing and strength, plus dataset variations in historical baselines, sustains the close market-implied odds near 49% each.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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