Miami's subtropical maritime climate typically sustains overnight lows near 78°F in early August due to high humidity, warm Gulf Stream waters, and minimal nocturnal radiational cooling under prevailing trade winds. Official forecasts from NOAA and local models project a daily minimum of 78–80°F for August 5, consistent with the 30-year climatological average and recent observations showing no cold frontal passages or unusual subsidence. This alignment drives the market's strongest implied probability on 78–79°F, with adjacent bins reflecting minor uncertainty from model spread on exact timing of any seabreeze or shower activity. No significant deviations from seasonal baselines have emerged in the latest guidance.