Japan Meteorological Agency ensemble forecasts project an overnight low of 14–16°C for Tokyo on May 24, closely matching the historical May climatology of roughly 15°C. Current atmospheric conditions, including stable westerly flow and absence of significant cold-air advection, support this range, with model consensus showing minimal spread. Trader positioning at 100% for 15°C reflects this alignment between official guidance and typical seasonal baselines. A late-arriving frontal system or rapid radiative cooling under clear skies could push readings toward 13°C or below, though such shifts remain outside the primary forecast envelope as of the latest model runs.