Trader consensus heavily favors State Sen. Jeremy Moss at 79% implied probability to win Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, driven by his early momentum in the open seat race after Rep. Haley Stevens' April 2025 Senate bid announcement. Moss secured Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement in November 2025, boasts superior fundraising with $572,000 cash on hand after a strong April quarterly raise of $201,000, and became the first candidate to file ballot petitions on April 14, demonstrating organizational edge. Former Rep. Andy Levin trails at 11% on lingering name recognition despite his 2022 primary defeat, while Aisha Farooqi, Don Ufford, and Oakland County Commissioner Dave Woodward lag with weaker resources; late endorsements or fundraising surges could narrow the gap ahead of summer campaigning.