Redistricting enacted by Missouri Republicans in 2025 and upheld through early 2026 substantially altered the 5th district's boundaries, incorporating additional rural counties that shifted its partisan lean toward Republicans and prompted most forecasters to rate it as a likely GOP pickup. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces this revised map in the November general election, while a crowded Republican primary field including state Sen. Rick Brattin and others vies for the nomination ahead of the August 4 primary. A citizen-initiated referendum effort, which gathered sufficient signatures by March 2026 to appear on the ballot, continues to create uncertainty over whether the current boundaries will stand for this cycle. These map-related developments and procedural hurdles explain the trader consensus reflected in the closely split probabilities between the two parties.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Republican Party
55%
Democratic Party
41%
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Republican Party
$1,756 वॉल्यूम
55%
Democratic Party
$1,201 वॉल्यूम
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted by Missouri Republicans in 2025 and upheld through early 2026 substantially altered the 5th district's boundaries, incorporating additional rural counties that shifted its partisan lean toward Republicans and prompted most forecasters to rate it as a likely GOP pickup. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces this revised map in the November general election, while a crowded Republican primary field including state Sen. Rick Brattin and others vies for the nomination ahead of the August 4 primary. A citizen-initiated referendum effort, which gathered sufficient signatures by March 2026 to appear on the ballot, continues to create uncertainty over whether the current boundaries will stand for this cycle. These map-related developments and procedural hurdles explain the trader consensus reflected in the closely split probabilities between the two parties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,957समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted by Missouri Republicans in 2025 and upheld through early 2026 substantially altered the 5th district's boundaries, incorporating additional rural counties that shifted its partisan lean toward Republicans and prompted most forecasters to rate it as a likely GOP pickup. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces this revised map in the November general election, while a crowded Republican primary field including state Sen. Rick Brattin and others vies for the nomination ahead of the August 4 primary. A citizen-initiated referendum effort, which gathered sufficient signatures by March 2026 to appear on the ballot, continues to create uncertainty over whether the current boundaries will stand for this cycle. These map-related developments and procedural hurdles explain the trader consensus reflected in the closely split probabilities between the two parties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$2,957समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting enacted by Missouri Republicans in 2025 and upheld through early 2026 substantially altered the 5th district's boundaries, incorporating additional rural counties that shifted its partisan lean toward Republicans and prompted most forecasters to rate it as a likely GOP pickup. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces this revised map in the November general election, while a crowded Republican primary field including state Sen. Rick Brattin and others vies for the nomination ahead of the August 4 primary. A citizen-initiated referendum effort, which gathered sufficient signatures by March 2026 to appear on the ballot, continues to create uncertainty over whether the current boundaries will stand for this cycle. These map-related developments and procedural hurdles explain the trader consensus reflected in the closely split probabilities between the two parties.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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