**US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026?** Trader consensus currently prices the probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory at roughly 12-16 percent. The administration has conducted repeated lethal strikes on suspected drug vessels in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean under Operation Southern Spear, designated multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and expanded intelligence and surveillance support to Mexican forces. President Trump has repeatedly stated intentions to extend operations to land targets inside Mexico, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has consistently rejected any foreign military presence or strikes on sovereign soil and instead prioritized bilateral intelligence sharing, extraditions of high-value targets, and independent Mexican operations such as the February 2026 action that killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader “El Mencho.” No US-initiated aerial strike on Mexican territory has been credibly reported to date, and Mexico’s firm sovereignty stance combined with ongoing non-kinetic cooperation continues to anchor low implied probabilities ahead of the year-end resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$3,456,934 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
31 दिसंबर
11%
$3,456,934 वॉल्यूम
31 दिसंबर
$728,472 वॉल्यूम
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026?** Trader consensus currently prices the probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory at roughly 12-16 percent. The administration has conducted repeated lethal strikes on suspected drug vessels in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean under Operation Southern Spear, designated multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and expanded intelligence and surveillance support to Mexican forces. President Trump has repeatedly stated intentions to extend operations to land targets inside Mexico, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has consistently rejected any foreign military presence or strikes on sovereign soil and instead prioritized bilateral intelligence sharing, extraditions of high-value targets, and independent Mexican operations such as the February 2026 action that killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader “El Mencho.” No US-initiated aerial strike on Mexican territory has been credibly reported to date, and Mexico’s firm sovereignty stance combined with ongoing non-kinetic cooperation continues to anchor low implied probabilities ahead of the year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,456,934समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026?** Trader consensus currently prices the probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory at roughly 12-16 percent. The administration has conducted repeated lethal strikes on suspected drug vessels in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean under Operation Southern Spear, designated multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and expanded intelligence and surveillance support to Mexican forces. President Trump has repeatedly stated intentions to extend operations to land targets inside Mexico, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has consistently rejected any foreign military presence or strikes on sovereign soil and instead prioritized bilateral intelligence sharing, extraditions of high-value targets, and independent Mexican operations such as the February 2026 action that killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader “El Mencho.” No US-initiated aerial strike on Mexican territory has been credibly reported to date, and Mexico’s firm sovereignty stance combined with ongoing non-kinetic cooperation continues to anchor low implied probabilities ahead of the year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
वॉल्यूम
$3,456,934समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**US strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026?** Trader consensus currently prices the probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory at roughly 12-16 percent. The administration has conducted repeated lethal strikes on suspected drug vessels in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean under Operation Southern Spear, designated multiple cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and expanded intelligence and surveillance support to Mexican forces. President Trump has repeatedly stated intentions to extend operations to land targets inside Mexico, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has consistently rejected any foreign military presence or strikes on sovereign soil and instead prioritized bilateral intelligence sharing, extraditions of high-value targets, and independent Mexican operations such as the February 2026 action that killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader “El Mencho.” No US-initiated aerial strike on Mexican territory has been credibly reported to date, and Mexico’s firm sovereignty stance combined with ongoing non-kinetic cooperation continues to anchor low implied probabilities ahead of the year-end resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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