Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.9% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the 2026 Iran war's pressures—including US-Israeli airstrikes degrading nuclear sites, IRGC command centers, and leadership figures since late February, followed by a failed 15-day ceasefire on April 8 and US naval blockade of Iranian ports from April 13 cutting oil revenue. Ongoing 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse have been brutally suppressed via massacres, executions, and internet blackouts, with no verifiable mass defections or uncontainable uprisings emerging. Intra-regime hardliner dominance in Islamabad talks underscores cohesion. Realistic shifts would require sudden elite fractures, revolutionary surge, or escalated external intervention within the tight 13-day window.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$32,628,684 वॉल्यूम
$32,628,684 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
हाँ
$32,628,684 वॉल्यूम
$32,628,684 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.9% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the 2026 Iran war's pressures—including US-Israeli airstrikes degrading nuclear sites, IRGC command centers, and leadership figures since late February, followed by a failed 15-day ceasefire on April 8 and US naval blockade of Iranian ports from April 13 cutting oil revenue. Ongoing 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse have been brutally suppressed via massacres, executions, and internet blackouts, with no verifiable mass defections or uncontainable uprisings emerging. Intra-regime hardliner dominance in Islamabad talks underscores cohesion. Realistic shifts would require sudden elite fractures, revolutionary surge, or escalated external intervention within the tight 13-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$32,628,684समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.9% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the 2026 Iran war's pressures—including US-Israeli airstrikes degrading nuclear sites, IRGC command centers, and leadership figures since late February, followed by a failed 15-day ceasefire on April 8 and US naval blockade of Iranian ports from April 13 cutting oil revenue. Ongoing 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse have been brutally suppressed via massacres, executions, and internet blackouts, with no verifiable mass defections or uncontainable uprisings emerging. Intra-regime hardliner dominance in Islamabad talks underscores cohesion. Realistic shifts would require sudden elite fractures, revolutionary surge, or escalated external intervention within the tight 13-day window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$32,628,684समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.9% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the 2026 Iran war's pressures—including US-Israeli airstrikes degrading nuclear sites, IRGC command centers, and leadership figures since late February, followed by a failed 15-day ceasefire on April 8 and US naval blockade of Iranian ports from April 13 cutting oil revenue. Ongoing 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse have been brutally suppressed via massacres, executions, and internet blackouts, with no verifiable mass defections or uncontainable uprisings emerging. Intra-regime hardliner dominance in Islamabad talks underscores cohesion. Realistic shifts would require sudden elite fractures, revolutionary surge, or escalated external intervention within the tight 13-day window.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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