Trader consensus prices a 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' sustained repressive control following brutal crackdowns that quelled nationwide protests by mid-January after over 30,000 deaths. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February death in U.S.-Israeli strikes and the recent U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—now in its third day amid collapsed Pakistan talks—the regime under new hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei has contained dissent through mass executions and internet blackouts, with no mass IRGC defections or fresh uprisings in the past 30 days. Economic devastation from war damage heightens risks, but historical patterns of suppression suggest stability holds; scenarios like widespread military fractures or uncontrollable riots could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$31,950,540 वॉल्यूम
$31,950,540 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
हाँ
$31,950,540 वॉल्यूम
$31,950,540 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' sustained repressive control following brutal crackdowns that quelled nationwide protests by mid-January after over 30,000 deaths. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February death in U.S.-Israeli strikes and the recent U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—now in its third day amid collapsed Pakistan talks—the regime under new hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei has contained dissent through mass executions and internet blackouts, with no mass IRGC defections or fresh uprisings in the past 30 days. Economic devastation from war damage heightens risks, but historical patterns of suppression suggest stability holds; scenarios like widespread military fractures or uncontrollable riots could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31,950,540समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' sustained repressive control following brutal crackdowns that quelled nationwide protests by mid-January after over 30,000 deaths. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February death in U.S.-Israeli strikes and the recent U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—now in its third day amid collapsed Pakistan talks—the regime under new hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei has contained dissent through mass executions and internet blackouts, with no mass IRGC defections or fresh uprisings in the past 30 days. Economic devastation from war damage heightens risks, but historical patterns of suppression suggest stability holds; scenarios like widespread military fractures or uncontrollable riots could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$31,950,541समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 98.4% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' sustained repressive control following brutal crackdowns that quelled nationwide protests by mid-January after over 30,000 deaths. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February death in U.S.-Israeli strikes and the recent U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—now in its third day amid collapsed Pakistan talks—the regime under new hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei has contained dissent through mass executions and internet blackouts, with no mass IRGC defections or fresh uprisings in the past 30 days. Economic devastation from war damage heightens risks, but historical patterns of suppression suggest stability holds; scenarios like widespread military fractures or uncontrollable riots could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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