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Politik·Primer

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politik·Primer

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner

Rhett Marques 55%

Jerry Carl 34%

Joshua McKee 6.3%

Austin Sidwell 5.7%

Polymarket

$38,529 Vol.

Rhett Marques 55%

Jerry Carl 34%

Joshua McKee 6.3%

Austin Sidwell 5.7%

Polymarket

$38,529 Vol.

Rhett Marques

$69 Vol.

55%

Jerry Carl

$404 Vol.

34%

Joshua McKee

$54 Vol.

6%

Austin Sidwell

$13,392 Vol.

6%

James Richardson

$5,444 Vol.

5%

John Mills

$15,127 Vol.

3%

James Dees

$4,038 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the AL-01 Republican primary favors State Rep. Rhett Marques at 56% implied probability over former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl at 34%, reflecting Marques' commanding $826,000 cash-on-hand advantage from Q1 2026 filings despite Carl's higher quarterly raise, as reported April 16. A March 31-April 2 poll of 505 likely voters showed Carl at 23%, Marques at 19%, and 50% undecided—statistically tied within the ±4.4% margin—signaling volatility ahead of the May 19 primary, where a runoff looms absent a majority. Recent catalysts include an April 15 multi-station candidate forum with all seven GOP contenders, ALFA's reaffirmed Carl endorsement amid ad disputes, and $179,000 in independent spending backing Marques. High undecideds and resource edge position frontrunners for a tight contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$38,529
Tanggal Berakhir
May 19, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the AL-01 Republican primary favors State Rep. Rhett Marques at 56% implied probability over former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl at 34%, reflecting Marques' commanding $826,000 cash-on-hand advantage from Q1 2026 filings despite Carl's higher quarterly raise, as reported April 16. A March 31-April 2 poll of 505 likely voters showed Carl at 23%, Marques at 19%, and 50% undecided—statistically tied within the ±4.4% margin—signaling volatility ahead of the May 19 primary, where a runoff looms absent a majority. Recent catalysts include an April 15 multi-station candidate forum with all seven GOP contenders, ALFA's reaffirmed Carl endorsement amid ad disputes, and $179,000 in independent spending backing Marques. High undecideds and resource edge position frontrunners for a tight contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$38,529
Tanggal Berakhir
May 19, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Rhett Marques" di 55%, diikuti oleh "Jerry Carl" di 34%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 55¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 55% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" telah menghasilkan $38.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 26, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" adalah "Rhett Marques" di 55%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 55% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Jerry Carl" di 34%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.