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Politik·Primer

Pemenang Utama Partai Republik AZ -01

Market icon
Politik·Primer

Pemenang Utama Partai Republik AZ -01

Jay Feely 70%

Joseph Chaplik 9.0%

John Trobough 7.3%

Todd Graham 5.5%

Polymarket

$380,497 Vol.

Jay Feely 70%

Joseph Chaplik 9.0%

John Trobough 7.3%

Todd Graham 5.5%

Polymarket

$380,497 Vol.

Jay Feely

$4,858 Vol.

70%

Joseph Chaplik

$8,148 Vol.

9%

John Trobough

$3,236 Vol.

7%

Todd Graham

$7,582 Vol.

5%

Gina Swoboda

$4,187 Vol.

3%

Mark Brnovich

$48,135 Vol.

1%

Kari Lake

$6,398 Vol.

1%

Jason Duey

$0 Vol.

6%

Matt Gress

$47,835 Vol.

1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,346 Vol.

1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$9,390 Vol.

1%

Derrick Gallego

$3,525 Vol.

<1%

Paul Reevs

$222,116 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Sowers

$10,741 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NFL kicker and Trump-endorsed Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the AZ-01 Republican primary on July 21, driven by his dominant Q1 fundraising haul of $742,000—outraising rivals and even combined Democratic contenders—as reported in recent FEC filings. His high name recognition, January Trump endorsement alongside Gina Swoboda, and March ballot qualification with double-required signatures have solidified frontrunner status in this open seat race vacated by Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, at 11.1%, gains from February resignation to focus full-time but trails amid Feely's momentum; John Trobough and Jason Duey follow with modest support from grassroots efforts. No public GOP primary polls exist, but odds reflect skin-in-the-game bets on Feely's path in the battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$380,497
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former NFL kicker and Trump-endorsed Jay Feely leads trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability for the AZ-01 Republican primary on July 21, driven by his dominant Q1 fundraising haul of $742,000—outraising rivals and even combined Democratic contenders—as reported in recent FEC filings. His high name recognition, January Trump endorsement alongside Gina Swoboda, and March ballot qualification with double-required signatures have solidified frontrunner status in this open seat race vacated by Rep. David Schweikert's gubernatorial bid. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, at 11.1%, gains from February resignation to focus full-time but trails amid Feely's momentum; John Trobough and Jason Duey follow with modest support from grassroots efforts. No public GOP primary polls exist, but odds reflect skin-in-the-game bets on Feely's path in the battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$380,497
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemenang Utama Partai Republik AZ -01" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 14 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Jay Feely" di 70%, diikuti oleh "Joseph Chaplik" di 9%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 70¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 70% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemenang Utama Partai Republik AZ -01" telah menghasilkan $380.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 25, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemenang Utama Partai Republik AZ -01," jelajahi 14 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemenang Utama Partai Republik AZ -01" adalah "Jay Feely" di 70%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 70% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Joseph Chaplik" di 9%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemenang Utama Partai Republik AZ -01" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.