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Politik·Pemilu AS

AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Politik·Pemilu AS

AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner

$64,506 Vol.

Polymarket

$64,506 Vol.

Greg Stanton

$39,977 Vol.

Yes

Kai Newkirk

$24,529 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The AZ-04 Democratic primary features incumbent U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton facing a progressive challenge from organizer Kai Newkirk, with the July 21 contest occurring in a safely Democratic district spanning Tempe, Ahwatukee, and parts of Chandler and Mesa. Newkirk's late entry has highlighted ideological contrasts, drawing endorsements from groups such as Our Revolution and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, while Stanton maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.6 million in receipts. Trader prices remain closely aligned near even odds for the two main candidates, reflecting uncertainty over primary turnout, the strength of progressive mobilization, and whether the challenger's limited cash and visibility can overcome typical incumbent advantages in ballot access and party infrastructure. Key upcoming factors include any final debates, additional endorsements, or shifts in voter engagement that could widen the gap before ballots are cast.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$64,506
Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 21, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Hasil diajukan: No

Tidak ada sengketa

Hasil akhir: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The AZ-04 Democratic primary features incumbent U.S. Rep. Greg Stanton facing a progressive challenge from organizer Kai Newkirk, with the July 21 contest occurring in a safely Democratic district spanning Tempe, Ahwatukee, and parts of Chandler and Mesa. Newkirk's late entry has highlighted ideological contrasts, drawing endorsements from groups such as Our Revolution and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, while Stanton maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.6 million in receipts. Trader prices remain closely aligned near even odds for the two main candidates, reflecting uncertainty over primary turnout, the strength of progressive mobilization, and whether the challenger's limited cash and visibility can overcome typical incumbent advantages in ballot access and party infrastructure. Key upcoming factors include any final debates, additional endorsements, or shifts in voter engagement that could widen the gap before ballots are cast.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$64,506
Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 21, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Hasil diajukan: No

Tidak ada sengketa

Hasil akhir: No

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Greg Stanton" di 100%, diikuti oleh "Kai Newkirk" di 0%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner" telah menghasilkan $64.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 1, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner" adalah "Greg Stanton" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Kai Newkirk" di 0%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "AZ-04 Democratic Primary Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.