The Bahia gubernatorial race features a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil), with the first round scheduled for October 4 and a potential runoff two weeks later. Trader consensus prices Rodrigues as the frontrunner at 57.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the strength of PT's statewide organization, his established voter base from the 2022 victory, and ongoing campaign efforts in key municipalities. Recent polling aggregates through mid-September show ACM Neto holding narrow leads in some surveys, yet Rodrigues has posted incremental gains in several rounds amid stable approval ratings near 50 percent. Minor candidates, including João Roma and others, register negligible support and are viewed as non-factors in splitting the vote. The narrow gap between the top two contenders leaves room for late shifts driven by turnout, debates, or last-minute endorsements before voting begins.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBahia Governor Election Winner
Bahia Governor Election Winner
Jerônimo Rodrigues 57%
ACM Neto 41%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$155,630 Vol.
$155,630 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
57%
ACM Neto
41%
João Roma
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 57%
ACM Neto 41%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$155,630 Vol.
$155,630 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$51,484 Vol.
57%
ACM Neto
$62,023 Vol.
41%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$11,986 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$13,880 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race features a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil), with the first round scheduled for October 4 and a potential runoff two weeks later. Trader consensus prices Rodrigues as the frontrunner at 57.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the strength of PT's statewide organization, his established voter base from the 2022 victory, and ongoing campaign efforts in key municipalities. Recent polling aggregates through mid-September show ACM Neto holding narrow leads in some surveys, yet Rodrigues has posted incremental gains in several rounds amid stable approval ratings near 50 percent. Minor candidates, including João Roma and others, register negligible support and are viewed as non-factors in splitting the vote. The narrow gap between the top two contenders leaves room for late shifts driven by turnout, debates, or last-minute endorsements before voting begins.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$155,630Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race features a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil), with the first round scheduled for October 4 and a potential runoff two weeks later. Trader consensus prices Rodrigues as the frontrunner at 57.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the strength of PT's statewide organization, his established voter base from the 2022 victory, and ongoing campaign efforts in key municipalities. Recent polling aggregates through mid-September show ACM Neto holding narrow leads in some surveys, yet Rodrigues has posted incremental gains in several rounds amid stable approval ratings near 50 percent. Minor candidates, including João Roma and others, register negligible support and are viewed as non-factors in splitting the vote. The narrow gap between the top two contenders leaves room for late shifts driven by turnout, debates, or last-minute endorsements before voting begins.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$155,630Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial race features a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil), with the first round scheduled for October 4 and a potential runoff two weeks later. Trader consensus prices Rodrigues as the frontrunner at 57.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the strength of PT's statewide organization, his established voter base from the 2022 victory, and ongoing campaign efforts in key municipalities. Recent polling aggregates through mid-September show ACM Neto holding narrow leads in some surveys, yet Rodrigues has posted incremental gains in several rounds amid stable approval ratings near 50 percent. Minor candidates, including João Roma and others, register negligible support and are viewed as non-factors in splitting the vote. The narrow gap between the top two contenders leaves room for late shifts driven by turnout, debates, or last-minute endorsements before voting begins.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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