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Politik·Brasil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Politik·Brasil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Lula 93%

Flavio Bolsonaro 7%

Rui Costa Pimenta <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
BARU

Lula 93%

Flavio Bolsonaro 7%

Rui Costa Pimenta <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
BARU
icon for Lula

Lula

$2,536 Vol.

93%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$371 Vol.

7%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Vol.

1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$279 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$259 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$259 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$259 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$279 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$279 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$279 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$279 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$359 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first-round market at 92.5% implied probability, driven by consistent polling showing him at 38-43% support against a fragmented field headed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 33-35%. As incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from established voter bases in key regions, improving approval metrics in recent surveys, and the absence of Jair Bolsonaro from the ballot. Campaign milestones including the August 28 start of free electoral broadcasts and the first debate have not altered the gap. Other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits. A first-round victory would require sustained turnout and no major late disruptions; scenarios that could narrow the margin include stronger right-wing consolidation or shifts among undecided voters ahead of the October 4 vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,176
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first-round market at 92.5% implied probability, driven by consistent polling showing him at 38-43% support against a fragmented field headed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 33-35%. As incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from established voter bases in key regions, improving approval metrics in recent surveys, and the absence of Jair Bolsonaro from the ballot. Campaign milestones including the August 28 start of free electoral broadcasts and the first debate have not altered the gap. Other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits. A first-round victory would require sustained turnout and no major late disruptions; scenarios that could narrow the margin include stronger right-wing consolidation or shifts among undecided voters ahead of the October 4 vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,176
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Terkait

icon for Apakah Flávio Bolsonaro akan finis di tempat kedua pada putaran pertama pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?

Apakah Flávio Bolsonaro akan finis di tempat kedua pada putaran pertama pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?

88%
Ya
icon for Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

57%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

85%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 13 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Lula" di 93%, diikuti oleh "Flavio Bolsonaro" di 7%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 93¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 93% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Aug 31, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner," jelajahi 13 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" adalah "Lula" di 93%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 93% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Flavio Bolsonaro" di 7%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.