Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. Tran advanced comfortably from the June top-two primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, while Republican Chuong Vo emerged as the leading challenger from a split field. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, citing the district's partisan voter index of roughly D+3, Democratic registration advantage, and the structural benefits of incumbency established after Tran's 2024 victory. These factors underpin the market's implied probability favoring the Democratic nominee, with limited recent developments capable of shifting the trajectory before Election Day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$26,218 Vol.
$26,218 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
12%
$26,218 Vol.
$26,218 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,885 Vol.
89%
Republican Party
$12,333 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. Tran advanced comfortably from the June top-two primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, while Republican Chuong Vo emerged as the leading challenger from a split field. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, citing the district's partisan voter index of roughly D+3, Democratic registration advantage, and the structural benefits of incumbency established after Tran's 2024 victory. These factors underpin the market's implied probability favoring the Democratic nominee, with limited recent developments capable of shifting the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$26,218Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. Tran advanced comfortably from the June top-two primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, while Republican Chuong Vo emerged as the leading challenger from a split field. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, citing the district's partisan voter index of roughly D+3, Democratic registration advantage, and the structural benefits of incumbency established after Tran's 2024 victory. These factors underpin the market's implied probability favoring the Democratic nominee, with limited recent developments capable of shifting the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,218Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. Tran advanced comfortably from the June top-two primary with roughly 54 percent of the vote, while Republican Chuong Vo emerged as the leading challenger from a split field. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, citing the district's partisan voter index of roughly D+3, Democratic registration advantage, and the structural benefits of incumbency established after Tran's 2024 victory. These factors underpin the market's implied probability favoring the Democratic nominee, with limited recent developments capable of shifting the trajectory before Election Day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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