Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area energy prices higher, lifting headline and core inflation readings and shifting ECB communications toward data-dependent tightening. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00 percent in late April, forward curves and economist surveys now price at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, most likely in June, to counter second-round effects amid resilient labor markets. This environment underpins the 98.5 percent trader consensus on a rate increase occurring sometime in 2026. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs, or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data, remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$129,663 Vol.
$129,663 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$129,663 Vol.
$129,663 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area energy prices higher, lifting headline and core inflation readings and shifting ECB communications toward data-dependent tightening. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00 percent in late April, forward curves and economist surveys now price at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, most likely in June, to counter second-round effects amid resilient labor markets. This environment underpins the 98.5 percent trader consensus on a rate increase occurring sometime in 2026. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs, or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data, remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$129,663Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area energy prices higher, lifting headline and core inflation readings and shifting ECB communications toward data-dependent tightening. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00 percent in late April, forward curves and economist surveys now price at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, most likely in June, to counter second-round effects amid resilient labor markets. This environment underpins the 98.5 percent trader consensus on a rate increase occurring sometime in 2026. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs, or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data, remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$129,663Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed euro-area energy prices higher, lifting headline and core inflation readings and shifting ECB communications toward data-dependent tightening. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00 percent in late April, forward curves and economist surveys now price at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end 2026, most likely in June, to counter second-round effects amid resilient labor markets. This environment underpins the 98.5 percent trader consensus on a rate increase occurring sometime in 2026. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy costs, or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data, remain the primary developments that could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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