Bipartisan negotiations have advanced continuing resolutions in both chambers to extend current funding levels through early December, directly addressing the September 30 expiration of FY2027 appropriations and reducing the chance of a lapse on October 1. Senate leaders reached agreement in early August on stopgap measures, while the House has advanced similar legislation and multiple full-year bills through committee. These steps build on prior resolutions that ended earlier 2026 disruptions tied to immigration and DHS funding, reflecting lawmakers' pattern of using temporary extensions ahead of the November midterms to maintain operations. Trader consensus on an 85% probability of no lapse aligns with this legislative momentum and historical avoidance of shutdowns when procedural agreements form well before deadlines.
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Oct 1, 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bipartisan negotiations have advanced continuing resolutions in both chambers to extend current funding levels through early December, directly addressing the September 30 expiration of FY2027 appropriations and reducing the chance of a lapse on October 1. Senate leaders reached agreement in early August on stopgap measures, while the House has advanced similar legislation and multiple full-year bills through committee. These steps build on prior resolutions that ended earlier 2026 disruptions tied to immigration and DHS funding, reflecting lawmakers' pattern of using temporary extensions ahead of the November midterms to maintain operations. Trader consensus on an 85% probability of no lapse aligns with this legislative momentum and historical avoidance of shutdowns when procedural agreements form well before deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,340Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Bipartisan negotiations have advanced continuing resolutions in both chambers to extend current funding levels through early December, directly addressing the September 30 expiration of FY2027 appropriations and reducing the chance of a lapse on October 1. Senate leaders reached agreement in early August on stopgap measures, while the House has advanced similar legislation and multiple full-year bills through committee. These steps build on prior resolutions that ended earlier 2026 disruptions tied to immigration and DHS funding, reflecting lawmakers' pattern of using temporary extensions ahead of the November midterms to maintain operations. Trader consensus on an 85% probability of no lapse aligns with this legislative momentum and historical avoidance of shutdowns when procedural agreements form well before deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,340Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan negotiations have advanced continuing resolutions in both chambers to extend current funding levels through early December, directly addressing the September 30 expiration of FY2027 appropriations and reducing the chance of a lapse on October 1. Senate leaders reached agreement in early August on stopgap measures, while the House has advanced similar legislation and multiple full-year bills through committee. These steps build on prior resolutions that ended earlier 2026 disruptions tied to immigration and DHS funding, reflecting lawmakers' pattern of using temporary extensions ahead of the November midterms to maintain operations. Trader consensus on an 85% probability of no lapse aligns with this legislative momentum and historical avoidance of shutdowns when procedural agreements form well before deadlines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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