Polymarket traders have reached unanimous consensus, pricing 100% implied probability on 0.4-0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, following Destatis' April 30 preliminary flash estimate of 0.5% seasonally adjusted growth that precisely fits the bin and beat consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This modest expansion, fueled by household consumption and government spending amid recovering exports, caps two years of stagnation after Q4 2025's revised 0.2% rise, reflecting resilience despite Mideast tensions from the Iran conflict slashing full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.5%. Final data due in late May could challenge this if revised below 0.4% due to industrial weakness or above 0.6% on upward surprises in services, though historical revisions average under 0.1 percentage point.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.4-0.6% 100.0%
≤0.0% <1%
0.1-0.3% <1%
0.7-0.9% <1%
$30,441 Vol.
$30,441 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
≤0.0%
No
0.1-0.3%
No
0.4-0.6%
Yes
0.7-0.9%
No
1.0-1.2%
No
1.3%+
No
0.4-0.6% 100.0%
≤0.0% <1%
0.1-0.3% <1%
0.7-0.9% <1%
$30,441 Vol.
$30,441 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
≤0.0%
$2,737 Vol.
No
0.1-0.3%
$3,263 Vol.
No
0.4-0.6%
$17,263 Vol.
Yes
0.7-0.9%
$1,672 Vol.
No
1.0-1.2%
$2,432 Vol.
No
1.3%+
$3,073 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders have reached unanimous consensus, pricing 100% implied probability on 0.4-0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, following Destatis' April 30 preliminary flash estimate of 0.5% seasonally adjusted growth that precisely fits the bin and beat consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This modest expansion, fueled by household consumption and government spending amid recovering exports, caps two years of stagnation after Q4 2025's revised 0.2% rise, reflecting resilience despite Mideast tensions from the Iran conflict slashing full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.5%. Final data due in late May could challenge this if revised below 0.4% due to industrial weakness or above 0.6% on upward surprises in services, though historical revisions average under 0.1 percentage point.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volume
$30,441Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders have reached unanimous consensus, pricing 100% implied probability on 0.4-0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, following Destatis' April 30 preliminary flash estimate of 0.5% seasonally adjusted growth that precisely fits the bin and beat consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This modest expansion, fueled by household consumption and government spending amid recovering exports, caps two years of stagnation after Q4 2025's revised 0.2% rise, reflecting resilience despite Mideast tensions from the Iran conflict slashing full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.5%. Final data due in late May could challenge this if revised below 0.4% due to industrial weakness or above 0.6% on upward surprises in services, though historical revisions average under 0.1 percentage point.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30,441Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Polymarket traders have reached unanimous consensus, pricing 100% implied probability on 0.4-0.6% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, following Destatis' April 30 preliminary flash estimate of 0.5% seasonally adjusted growth that precisely fits the bin and beat consensus forecasts of 0.2%. This modest expansion, fueled by household consumption and government spending amid recovering exports, caps two years of stagnation after Q4 2025's revised 0.2% rise, reflecting resilience despite Mideast tensions from the Iran conflict slashing full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.5%. Final data due in late May could challenge this if revised below 0.4% due to industrial weakness or above 0.6% on upward surprises in services, though historical revisions average under 0.1 percentage point.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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