Recent July 2026 inflation data showing a rise to 2.9%, fueled by energy prices surging to 10% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for subdued Eurozone GDP growth in 2026. The ECB’s June staff projections anchor consensus around 0.8% annual expansion, reflecting downside risks from higher energy costs, persistent core inflation near 2.5%, and a stable 6.3% unemployment rate that signals limited labor-market momentum. These factors position the 0-1.0% outcome as the dominant market-implied probability, as monetary policy remains focused on returning inflation to the 2% target without aggressive easing that could boost near-term activity. Upcoming Q2 GDP releases and August inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0-1.0% 66.8%
1.0-2.0% 25%
<0% 5.8%
4.0-5.0% <1%
$28,764 Vol.
$28,764 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
6%
0-1.0%
67%
1.0-2.0%
25%
2.0-3.0%
<1%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
1%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%+
<1%
0-1.0% 66.8%
1.0-2.0% 25%
<0% 5.8%
4.0-5.0% <1%
$28,764 Vol.
$28,764 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$1,615 Vol.
6%
0-1.0%
$10,688 Vol.
67%
1.0-2.0%
$6,957 Vol.
25%
2.0-3.0%
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
3.0-4.0%
$1,027 Vol.
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$2,108 Vol.
1%
5.0-6.0%
$1,127 Vol.
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$2,544 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,579 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent July 2026 inflation data showing a rise to 2.9%, fueled by energy prices surging to 10% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for subdued Eurozone GDP growth in 2026. The ECB’s June staff projections anchor consensus around 0.8% annual expansion, reflecting downside risks from higher energy costs, persistent core inflation near 2.5%, and a stable 6.3% unemployment rate that signals limited labor-market momentum. These factors position the 0-1.0% outcome as the dominant market-implied probability, as monetary policy remains focused on returning inflation to the 2% target without aggressive easing that could boost near-term activity. Upcoming Q2 GDP releases and August inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$28,764Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent July 2026 inflation data showing a rise to 2.9%, fueled by energy prices surging to 10% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for subdued Eurozone GDP growth in 2026. The ECB’s June staff projections anchor consensus around 0.8% annual expansion, reflecting downside risks from higher energy costs, persistent core inflation near 2.5%, and a stable 6.3% unemployment rate that signals limited labor-market momentum. These factors position the 0-1.0% outcome as the dominant market-implied probability, as monetary policy remains focused on returning inflation to the 2% target without aggressive easing that could boost near-term activity. Upcoming Q2 GDP releases and August inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,764Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 inflation data showing a rise to 2.9%, fueled by energy prices surging to 10% amid renewed geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for subdued Eurozone GDP growth in 2026. The ECB’s June staff projections anchor consensus around 0.8% annual expansion, reflecting downside risks from higher energy costs, persistent core inflation near 2.5%, and a stable 6.3% unemployment rate that signals limited labor-market momentum. These factors position the 0-1.0% outcome as the dominant market-implied probability, as monetary policy remains focused on returning inflation to the 2% target without aggressive easing that could boost near-term activity. Upcoming Q2 GDP releases and August inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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