**Equal implied probabilities across temperature bins reflect high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's peak temperature on August 23, driven by typical late-summer convective activity in the Sichuan Basin.** Multiple models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON) currently project daytime highs of 31–34°C under partly cloudy skies with 50–70% storm chances, where timing and coverage of thunderstorms can suppress maxima by several degrees through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation or allow brief clear periods for stronger diurnal heating. High humidity (70–85%) and light winds limit extremes, consistent with August climatology showing average highs near 29–31°C but with frequent 2–4°C day-to-day variability from monsoon moisture. Upcoming model runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution as convective initiation timing becomes clearer.