Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election in Indiana's 4th district with strong structural advantages. The west-central Indiana seat, encompassing Lafayette and Indianapolis suburbs, has consistently favored Republican candidates, as evidenced by Baird's 2024 margin exceeding 29 points. Democratic nominee Drew Cox faces an uphill path in a district where Republican registration and voting patterns provide a durable base. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical performance and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the balance. Late-cycle national shifts, turnout surges among Democratic-leaning groups, or unforeseen candidate issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIN-04 House Election Winner
IN-04 House Election Winner
$10,237 Vol.
$10,237 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$10,237 Vol.
$10,237 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,932 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$2,305 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election in Indiana's 4th district with strong structural advantages. The west-central Indiana seat, encompassing Lafayette and Indianapolis suburbs, has consistently favored Republican candidates, as evidenced by Baird's 2024 margin exceeding 29 points. Democratic nominee Drew Cox faces an uphill path in a district where Republican registration and voting patterns provide a durable base. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical performance and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the balance. Late-cycle national shifts, turnout surges among Democratic-leaning groups, or unforeseen candidate issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$10,237Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election in Indiana's 4th district with strong structural advantages. The west-central Indiana seat, encompassing Lafayette and Indianapolis suburbs, has consistently favored Republican candidates, as evidenced by Baird's 2024 margin exceeding 29 points. Democratic nominee Drew Cox faces an uphill path in a district where Republican registration and voting patterns provide a durable base. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical performance and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the balance. Late-cycle national shifts, turnout surges among Democratic-leaning groups, or unforeseen candidate issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,237Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election in Indiana's 4th district with strong structural advantages. The west-central Indiana seat, encompassing Lafayette and Indianapolis suburbs, has consistently favored Republican candidates, as evidenced by Baird's 2024 margin exceeding 29 points. Democratic nominee Drew Cox faces an uphill path in a district where Republican registration and voting patterns provide a durable base. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical performance and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the balance. Late-cycle national shifts, turnout surges among Democratic-leaning groups, or unforeseen candidate issues remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
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