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Geopolitik·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Market icon
Geopolitik·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Jun 30

Jun 30

3% peluang
Polymarket

$14,364 Vol.

3% peluang
Polymarket

$14,364 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, controlled by an opposition KMT-TPP coalition holding 60 seats, initiated impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te in December 2025 over accusations of violating the constitution by refusing to enact revised fiscal allocation laws, passing the preliminary motion 60-51. Public hearings occurred in January 2026, which Lai skipped, sending representatives instead, but no momentum has built toward the required two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 seats) needed to advance the petition to the Constitutional Court. With a second committee session slated for May 13-14 and final vote on May 19, traders' near-certain 97% "No" consensus reflects entrenched party lines and lack of DPP defections. Only a major scandal, mass resignations, or unexpected cross-party support could shift odds before June 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$14,364
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, controlled by an opposition KMT-TPP coalition holding 60 seats, initiated impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te in December 2025 over accusations of violating the constitution by refusing to enact revised fiscal allocation laws, passing the preliminary motion 60-51. Public hearings occurred in January 2026, which Lai skipped, sending representatives instead, but no momentum has built toward the required two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 seats) needed to advance the petition to the Constitutional Court. With a second committee session slated for May 13-14 and final vote on May 19, traders' near-certain 97% "No" consensus reflects entrenched party lines and lack of DPP defections. Only a major scandal, mass resignations, or unexpected cross-party support could shift odds before June 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$14,364
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 3% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 3¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 3% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" telah menghasilkan $14.4K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 2, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" adalah 3% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 3% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.