Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate Chengdu's minimum temperature on September 22 will likely fall near 20–21°C under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light winds and possible scattered showers, consistent with the city's typical September basin climatology of high humidity and limited diurnal range. Trader sentiment splitting evenly between 15°C or below and 25°C or higher reflects uncertainty in short-range model guidance on cloud cover thickness and any late-arriving frontal moisture, which could suppress overnight lows or allow greater radiational cooling under clearer skies. Historical September lows average around 20°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, and the current pattern shows no strong cold-air intrusion from the north or unusual subsidence that would drive extremes. Updated NMC and ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range as steering patterns and precipitation timing become clearer.