Current forecasts from models including GFS and Met Office guidance point to a mild overnight period for London on September 4 driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting warmer Atlantic air, combined with extensive cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This setup supports minimum temperatures most likely in the 16–18°C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Recent observations show dew points near 16–17°C and winds remaining above 10 knots through the night, reducing the chance of sharper drops. Ensemble spreads indicate limited downside risk below 15°C unless clearer skies develop earlier than expected, while upside to 19°C or higher appears constrained by the overall freshening trend. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 12–18 hours will provide the key data for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in London on September 4?
Lowest temperature in London on September 4?
17°C 45%
18°C 34%
16°C 22%
15°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
22%
17°C
45%
18°C
34%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 45%
18°C 34%
16°C 22%
15°C 6%
BARU
BARU
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$30 Vol.
1%
13°C
$53 Vol.
1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$43 Vol.
6%
16°C
$266 Vol.
22%
17°C
$388 Vol.
45%
18°C
$684 Vol.
34%
19°C
$211 Vol.
4%
20°C
$196 Vol.
1%
21°C
$136 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$61 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models including GFS and Met Office guidance point to a mild overnight period for London on September 4 driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting warmer Atlantic air, combined with extensive cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This setup supports minimum temperatures most likely in the 16–18°C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Recent observations show dew points near 16–17°C and winds remaining above 10 knots through the night, reducing the chance of sharper drops. Ensemble spreads indicate limited downside risk below 15°C unless clearer skies develop earlier than expected, while upside to 19°C or higher appears constrained by the overall freshening trend. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 12–18 hours will provide the key data for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,978Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models including GFS and Met Office guidance point to a mild overnight period for London on September 4 driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting warmer Atlantic air, combined with extensive cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This setup supports minimum temperatures most likely in the 16–18°C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Recent observations show dew points near 16–17°C and winds remaining above 10 knots through the night, reducing the chance of sharper drops. Ensemble spreads indicate limited downside risk below 15°C unless clearer skies develop earlier than expected, while upside to 19°C or higher appears constrained by the overall freshening trend. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 12–18 hours will provide the key data for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,978Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from models including GFS and Met Office guidance point to a mild overnight period for London on September 4 driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting warmer Atlantic air, combined with extensive cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This setup supports minimum temperatures most likely in the 16–18°C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Recent observations show dew points near 16–17°C and winds remaining above 10 knots through the night, reducing the chance of sharper drops. Ensemble spreads indicate limited downside risk below 15°C unless clearer skies develop earlier than expected, while upside to 19°C or higher appears constrained by the overall freshening trend. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 12–18 hours will provide the key data for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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