Recent forecasts from meteorological models position 26–27°C as the most likely minimum temperatures for Shanghai on August 12, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated humidity from the East Asian summer monsoon, and typical urban heat retention that limits nocturnal cooling. Historical August climatology shows average overnight lows near 25–26°C, with recent early-month observations confirming 26–28°C ranges amid scattered showers and overcast conditions that moderate temperature swings. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring 27°C at 51.5% and 26°C at 33%, while lower probabilities for extremes reflect the low likelihood of significant frontal passages or typhoon influences in the immediate forecast window. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine any adjustments from evolving cloud cover or precipitation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?
27°C 41%
26°C 33%
28°C 12%
25°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 12, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
6%
25°C
9%
26°C
33%
27°C
41%
28°C
12%
29°C
9%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 41%
26°C 33%
28°C 12%
25°C 9%
BARU
BARU
Aug 12, 2026
21°C or below
$42 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$34 Vol.
2%
23°C
$16 Vol.
3%
24°C
$40 Vol.
6%
25°C
$10 Vol.
9%
26°C
$10 Vol.
33%
27°C
$30 Vol.
41%
28°C
$10 Vol.
12%
29°C
$10 Vol.
9%
30°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$32 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models position 26–27°C as the most likely minimum temperatures for Shanghai on August 12, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated humidity from the East Asian summer monsoon, and typical urban heat retention that limits nocturnal cooling. Historical August climatology shows average overnight lows near 25–26°C, with recent early-month observations confirming 26–28°C ranges amid scattered showers and overcast conditions that moderate temperature swings. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring 27°C at 51.5% and 26°C at 33%, while lower probabilities for extremes reflect the low likelihood of significant frontal passages or typhoon influences in the immediate forecast window. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine any adjustments from evolving cloud cover or precipitation.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$261Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models position 26–27°C as the most likely minimum temperatures for Shanghai on August 12, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated humidity from the East Asian summer monsoon, and typical urban heat retention that limits nocturnal cooling. Historical August climatology shows average overnight lows near 25–26°C, with recent early-month observations confirming 26–28°C ranges amid scattered showers and overcast conditions that moderate temperature swings. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring 27°C at 51.5% and 26°C at 33%, while lower probabilities for extremes reflect the low likelihood of significant frontal passages or typhoon influences in the immediate forecast window. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine any adjustments from evolving cloud cover or precipitation.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$261Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models position 26–27°C as the most likely minimum temperatures for Shanghai on August 12, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated humidity from the East Asian summer monsoon, and typical urban heat retention that limits nocturnal cooling. Historical August climatology shows average overnight lows near 25–26°C, with recent early-month observations confirming 26–28°C ranges amid scattered showers and overcast conditions that moderate temperature swings. These factors underpin the market-implied odds favoring 27°C at 51.5% and 26°C at 33%, while lower probabilities for extremes reflect the low likelihood of significant frontal passages or typhoon influences in the immediate forecast window. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine any adjustments from evolving cloud cover or precipitation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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