Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate overnight lows near 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 28 amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. Recent hot, humid conditions with minimums in the mid-20s have given way to a pattern of afternoon thunderstorms and variable nocturnal cloudiness, creating genuine uncertainty in the precise low. Historical late-August averages hover near 22–23°C, but current steering patterns and precipitation timing keep outcomes clustered around 23–26°C, explaining the balanced 50% market-implied odds across thresholds as traders weigh model spread and potential for modest cooling or warming shifts before resolution.