Recent synoptic patterns, including a trough advancing from the Tasman Sea and strengthening El Niño-driven westerlies, are creating high uncertainty in Wellington's overnight radiative cooling for August 28. Official MetService guidance points to a minimum near 11°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds shifting southerly, while ensemble models diverge on cloud persistence and shower timing that could suppress or enhance temperature drops. Historical August minima average around 8–9°C, but current above-average sea-surface temperatures and variable steering flows support a broad plausible range from single digits to the mid-teens. This scientific spread in forecast guidance and observational data from NIWA-aligned stations underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds across multiple temperature thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
12°C 49%
13°C 47%
11°C 37%
10°C 37%
BARU
BARU
Aug 28, 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
5%
9°C
36%
10°C
37%
11°C
37%
12°C
49%
13°C
47%
14°C
36%
15°C
32%
16°C
26%
17°C or higher
35%
12°C 49%
13°C 47%
11°C 37%
10°C 37%
BARU
BARU
Aug 28, 2026
7°C or below
$22 Vol.
2%
8°C
$22 Vol.
5%
9°C
$0 Vol.
36%
10°C
$0 Vol.
37%
11°C
$0 Vol.
37%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
47%
14°C
$75 Vol.
36%
15°C
$22 Vol.
32%
16°C
$22 Vol.
26%
17°C or higher
$22 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent synoptic patterns, including a trough advancing from the Tasman Sea and strengthening El Niño-driven westerlies, are creating high uncertainty in Wellington's overnight radiative cooling for August 28. Official MetService guidance points to a minimum near 11°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds shifting southerly, while ensemble models diverge on cloud persistence and shower timing that could suppress or enhance temperature drops. Historical August minima average around 8–9°C, but current above-average sea-surface temperatures and variable steering flows support a broad plausible range from single digits to the mid-teens. This scientific spread in forecast guidance and observational data from NIWA-aligned stations underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds across multiple temperature thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$184Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent synoptic patterns, including a trough advancing from the Tasman Sea and strengthening El Niño-driven westerlies, are creating high uncertainty in Wellington's overnight radiative cooling for August 28. Official MetService guidance points to a minimum near 11°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds shifting southerly, while ensemble models diverge on cloud persistence and shower timing that could suppress or enhance temperature drops. Historical August minima average around 8–9°C, but current above-average sea-surface temperatures and variable steering flows support a broad plausible range from single digits to the mid-teens. This scientific spread in forecast guidance and observational data from NIWA-aligned stations underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds across multiple temperature thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$184Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent synoptic patterns, including a trough advancing from the Tasman Sea and strengthening El Niño-driven westerlies, are creating high uncertainty in Wellington's overnight radiative cooling for August 28. Official MetService guidance points to a minimum near 11°C under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds shifting southerly, while ensemble models diverge on cloud persistence and shower timing that could suppress or enhance temperature drops. Historical August minima average around 8–9°C, but current above-average sea-surface temperatures and variable steering flows support a broad plausible range from single digits to the mid-teens. This scientific spread in forecast guidance and observational data from NIWA-aligned stations underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds across multiple temperature thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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