Anthropic’s release cadence for its mid-tier Claude Sonnet models, combined with intensifying competition in agentic large language models, shapes trader views on the next Sonnet. Sonnet 5 launched June 30, 2026, as the most capable agentic version yet with strong gains on benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and OSWorld for tool use, planning, and autonomous coding relative to Sonnet 4.6 from February. It quickly became the default for free and Pro users at lower pricing than Opus. Recent refreshes to Opus 5 in July and specialized variants in early September, alongside OpenAI and Google updates, sustain pressure for another Sonnet iteration. Prediction markets currently cluster expectations in October, reflecting the roughly four-month gap between prior Sonnet steps and anticipated further advances in computer use and reliability.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$15,423 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
22%
October 31
90%
December 31
97%
$15,423 Vol.
September 30
$975 Vol.
22%
October 31
$6,953 Vol.
90%
December 31
$3,757 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release cadence for its mid-tier Claude Sonnet models, combined with intensifying competition in agentic large language models, shapes trader views on the next Sonnet. Sonnet 5 launched June 30, 2026, as the most capable agentic version yet with strong gains on benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and OSWorld for tool use, planning, and autonomous coding relative to Sonnet 4.6 from February. It quickly became the default for free and Pro users at lower pricing than Opus. Recent refreshes to Opus 5 in July and specialized variants in early September, alongside OpenAI and Google updates, sustain pressure for another Sonnet iteration. Prediction markets currently cluster expectations in October, reflecting the roughly four-month gap between prior Sonnet steps and anticipated further advances in computer use and reliability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ET
Volume
$15,423Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s release cadence for its mid-tier Claude Sonnet models, combined with intensifying competition in agentic large language models, shapes trader views on the next Sonnet. Sonnet 5 launched June 30, 2026, as the most capable agentic version yet with strong gains on benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and OSWorld for tool use, planning, and autonomous coding relative to Sonnet 4.6 from February. It quickly became the default for free and Pro users at lower pricing than Opus. Recent refreshes to Opus 5 in July and specialized variants in early September, alongside OpenAI and Google updates, sustain pressure for another Sonnet iteration. Prediction markets currently cluster expectations in October, reflecting the roughly four-month gap between prior Sonnet steps and anticipated further advances in computer use and reliability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,423Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s release cadence for its mid-tier Claude Sonnet models, combined with intensifying competition in agentic large language models, shapes trader views on the next Sonnet. Sonnet 5 launched June 30, 2026, as the most capable agentic version yet with strong gains on benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and OSWorld for tool use, planning, and autonomous coding relative to Sonnet 4.6 from February. It quickly became the default for free and Pro users at lower pricing than Opus. Recent refreshes to Opus 5 in July and specialized variants in early September, alongside OpenAI and Google updates, sustain pressure for another Sonnet iteration. Prediction markets currently cluster expectations in October, reflecting the roughly four-month gap between prior Sonnet steps and anticipated further advances in computer use and reliability.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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